{ "schemaVersion": 1, "kind": "FROZEN_PROSPECTIVE_RESEARCH_NOT_BETTING_ADVICE", "gameId": "V85_2026-10-31_78_5", "date": "2026-10-31", "slot": "friday", "frozenAt": "2026-10-30T18:55:27.791475+01:00", "marketSourceAt": "2026-10-30T18:26:15+01:00", "marketObservedAt": "2026-10-30T18:55:27.791475+01:00", "marketLagSeconds": 1753, "marketSource": "https://www.atg.se/services/racinginfo/v1/api/games/V85_2026-10-31_78_5", "inputFileHashesSha256": { "historicalStartsSha256": "0060f89560950b9d7e4ce6dbcd11c26e50bb1e204e9567f528e40222b3387953", "historicalOpponentsSha256": "0abe5c7e1eafbda14445d302611d2fa824fb3a5d7f514230e162beb6d2e034a1", "currentOpponentsSha256": "eaed349d585c9948cf246a207771ab941ec62ed439e6b8cd62d64bead156cba2", "forecastCodeSha256": "2429769668d5ff3ff4a4aebe3058a58e1d633fe4110e5c71a693e81487ba7858" }, "trainingRaces": 178, "trainingStarts": 1931, "dataProvenance": "Both XGBoost models were trained on historic starts strictly before 2026-10-31. All Bjerke inputs were obtained live BEFORE start; both share identical horse list and ATG source time.", "statisticalWarning": "Percentages are within-race normalized UNCALIBRATED classifier scores, NOT estimated probabilities, spik odds, or predicted return.", "researchDisclaimer": "No recommendation to bet based on these forecasts; model scores have underperformed ATG top-three ranking in historical comparison.", "races": [ { "leg": 1, "raceId": "2026-10-31_78_5", "runners": [ { "number": 1, "horse": "Jaguar Godiva", "marketPct": 12.5, "baseModelShare": 7.1365, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 11.3463, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 1.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 4.6, "win5": 0, "top3_5": 2, "days_off": 21, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 2, "horse": "Hickovelocissimo", "marketPct": 2.98, "baseModelShare": 9.9104, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 8.7459, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 2.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 2.5, "win5": 2, "top3_5": 2, "days_off": 13, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 3, "horse": "Great Old Dance", "marketPct": 44.24, "baseModelShare": 22.2052, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 19.1434, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 3.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 2.8, "win5": 2, "top3_5": 4, "days_off": 14, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 4, "horse": "J.C.", "marketPct": 16.11, "baseModelShare": 23.6351, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 28.2232, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 4.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 1.8, "win5": 2, "top3_5": 5, "days_off": 12, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 71.55, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 5, "horse": "Leverage", "marketPct": 9.79, "baseModelShare": 14.9852, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 14.5596, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 5.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 4.25, "win5": 2, "top3_5": 2, "days_off": 212, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 6, "horse": "Jackson Trot", "marketPct": 1.25, "baseModelShare": 2.6623, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 2.3432, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 6.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 2.25, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 3, "days_off": 11, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 72.55, "past_purse_log": 15.115 } }, { "number": 7, "horse": "Hercules Godiva", "marketPct": 0.48, "baseModelShare": 6.6332, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 4.1542, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 7.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 5, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 1, "days_off": 29, "gallop5": 1.0, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 8, "horse": "Legligin", "marketPct": 3.29, "baseModelShare": 6.8656, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 5.486, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 8.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 3.8, "win5": 0, "top3_5": 3, "days_off": 14, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 9, "horse": "Tayno B.B.", "marketPct": 0.21, "baseModelShare": 2.0356, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 1.9483, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 9.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 3, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 3, "days_off": 11, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 72.6, "past_purse_log": 14.907 } }, { "number": 10, "horse": "Fly Express", "marketPct": 7.99, "baseModelShare": 3.9308, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 4.0499, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 10.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 3.8, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 2, "days_off": 12, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 71.95, "past_purse_log": null } } ], "baseTop3": [ 4, 3, 5 ], "opponentTop3": [ 4, 3, 5 ], "marketTop3": [ 3, 4, 1 ], "opponentDataCoverage": 10 }, { "leg": 2, "raceId": "2026-10-31_78_6", "runners": [ { "number": 1, "horse": "Baias", "marketPct": 1.9, "baseModelShare": 7.6759, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 10.8435, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 1.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 3.8, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 2, "days_off": 42, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": 15.808 } }, { "number": 2, "horse": "Gigant Tider", "marketPct": 33.71, "baseModelShare": 11.4746, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 17.3227, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 2.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 1.8, "win5": 3, "top3_5": 4, "days_off": 16, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 82.2, "past_purse_log": 14.422 } }, { "number": 3, "horse": "Tordenskjold", "marketPct": 5.42, "baseModelShare": 10.1229, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 8.2229, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 3.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 2.2, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 4, "days_off": 11, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 81.55, "past_purse_log": 15.387 } }, { "number": 4, "horse": "Voje Lotta", "marketPct": 15.83, "baseModelShare": 21.8129, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 20.4963, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 4.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 2, "win5": 3, "top3_5": 4, "days_off": 25, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": 15.674 } }, { "number": 6, "horse": "Grisle Tore G.L.", "marketPct": 33.7, "baseModelShare": 5.4744, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 5.3048, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 6.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 1.5, "win5": 2, "top3_5": 4, "days_off": 11, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": 14.981 } }, { "number": 7, "horse": "Holter Odin", "marketPct": 0.54, "baseModelShare": 1.3925, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 1.3271, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 7.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 4.25, "win5": 0, "top3_5": 1, "days_off": 11, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 81.8, "past_purse_log": 14.981 } }, { "number": 8, "horse": "Tangen Nils", "marketPct": 2.9, "baseModelShare": 18.7198, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 22.3869, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 8.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 1.6, "win5": 3, "top3_5": 5, "days_off": 48, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": 17.461 } }, { "number": 9, "horse": "Prinsesse Ness Tjo", "marketPct": 5.04, "baseModelShare": 17.9372, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 9.7059, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 9.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 1.5, "win5": 3, "top3_5": 4, "days_off": 35, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 10, "horse": "Tripsson Ø.K.", "marketPct": 0.17, "baseModelShare": 1.4373, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 1.1304, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 10.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 3, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 2, "days_off": 11, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 82.95, "past_purse_log": 14.827 } }, { "number": 11, "horse": "Alm Kevin", "marketPct": 0.18, "baseModelShare": 3.9526, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 3.2596, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 11.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 5.75, "win5": 0, "top3_5": 0, "days_off": 13, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 82.45, "past_purse_log": 15.808 } } ], "baseTop3": [ 4, 8, 9 ], "opponentTop3": [ 8, 4, 2 ], "marketTop3": [ 2, 6, 4 ], "opponentDataCoverage": 10 }, { "leg": 3, "raceId": "2026-10-31_78_7", "runners": [ { "number": 1, "horse": "Lilli Kentucky S.F.", "marketPct": 0.79, "baseModelShare": 3.6982, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 2.5084, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 1.0, "distance": 2100.0, "field": 11, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 2.5, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 3, "days_off": 23, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 76.3, "past_purse_log": 14.316 } }, { "number": 2, "horse": "Pauhunri Boko", "marketPct": 33.62, "baseModelShare": 10.3272, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 6.5053, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 2.0, "distance": 2100.0, "field": 11, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 1.2, "win5": 4, "top3_5": 5, "days_off": 66, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 76.1, "past_purse_log": 14.316 } }, { "number": 3, "horse": "Moor Jeting", "marketPct": 5.86, "baseModelShare": 7.7934, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 10.9372, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 3.0, "distance": 2100.0, "field": 11, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 1.667, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 3, "days_off": 20, "gallop5": 1.0, "km_median": 75.3, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 4, "horse": "Daisy Love", "marketPct": 1.02, "baseModelShare": 2.0266, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 2.1345, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 4.0, "distance": 2100.0, "field": 11, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 2.8, "win5": 2, "top3_5": 4, "days_off": 8, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 75.4, "past_purse_log": 14.316 } }, { "number": 5, "horse": "Lapin Kulta Sox", "marketPct": 4.33, "baseModelShare": 4.3792, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 5.7336, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 5.0, "distance": 2100.0, "field": 11, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 2.5, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 3, "days_off": 11, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 75.55, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 6, "horse": "Sauron Zon", "marketPct": 34.31, "baseModelShare": 2.5868, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 3.2222, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 6.0, "distance": 2100.0, "field": 11, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 1.667, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 3, "days_off": 10, "gallop5": 1.0, "km_median": 75.4, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 7, "horse": "S.B.'sPeakyBlinder", "marketPct": 2.89, "baseModelShare": 6.2043, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 4.2165, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 7.0, "distance": 2100.0, "field": 11, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 3.2, "win5": 2, "top3_5": 3, "days_off": 13, "gallop5": 1.0, "km_median": 76.1, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 8, "horse": "Surpriced Tooma", "marketPct": 2.05, "baseModelShare": 17.9197, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 25.748, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 8.0, "distance": 2100.0, "field": 11, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 1, "win5": 2, "top3_5": 2, "days_off": 22, "gallop5": 1.0, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 10, "horse": "Chasse Artist", "marketPct": 0.74, "baseModelShare": 5.7316, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 5.3525, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 10.0, "distance": 2100.0, "field": 11, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 4.25, "win5": 0, "top3_5": 1, "days_off": 14, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 74.9, "past_purse_log": 16.562 } }, { "number": 11, "horse": "Urban Tile", "marketPct": 13.06, "baseModelShare": 21.3353, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 22.7775, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 11.0, "distance": 2100.0, "field": 11, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 1.25, "win5": 3, "top3_5": 4, "days_off": 25, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 74.8, "past_purse_log": 14.422 } }, { "number": 12, "horse": "Gobsmacked", "marketPct": 0.68, "baseModelShare": 17.9977, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 10.8645, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 12.0, "distance": 2100.0, "field": 11, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 1, "win5": 2, "top3_5": 2, "days_off": 33, "gallop5": 1.0, "km_median": 75.2, "past_purse_log": null } } ], "baseTop3": [ 11, 12, 8 ], "opponentTop3": [ 8, 11, 3 ], "marketTop3": [ 6, 2, 11 ], "opponentDataCoverage": 11 }, { "leg": 4, "raceId": "2026-10-31_78_8", "runners": [ { "number": 1, "horse": "Baron Tilly", "marketPct": 18.3, "baseModelShare": 7.8687, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 8.9107, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 1.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 9, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 1.5, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 2, "days_off": 77, "gallop5": 1.0, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 2, "horse": "Daim Brodda", "marketPct": 37.91, "baseModelShare": 7.12, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 7.6636, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 2.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 9, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 4, "win5": 0, "top3_5": 2, "days_off": 20, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 3, "horse": "Before Takeoff", "marketPct": 4.4, "baseModelShare": 11.7242, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 10.2701, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 3.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 9, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 3, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 3, "days_off": 21, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 70.0, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 4, "horse": "Xanthis Harvey", "marketPct": 2.02, "baseModelShare": 7.5111, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 7.822, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 4.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 9, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 5, "win5": 0, "top3_5": 1, "days_off": 56, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 70.55, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 5, "horse": "Charron", "marketPct": 12.82, "baseModelShare": 11.3686, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 8.5393, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 5.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 9, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 5, "win5": 2, "top3_5": 2, "days_off": 21, "gallop5": 1.0, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": 16.947 } }, { "number": 7, "horse": "Crown", "marketPct": 0.62, "baseModelShare": 9.3364, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 8.3403, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 7.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 9, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 2.5, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 3, "days_off": 26, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 70.8, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 8, "horse": "Clarissa", "marketPct": 5.83, "baseModelShare": 9.4597, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 14.194, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 8.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 9, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 2.5, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 3, "days_off": 21, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 9, "horse": "Lando Mearas", "marketPct": 14.28, "baseModelShare": 31.004, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 30.158, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 9.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 9, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 2.4, "win5": 3, "top3_5": 4, "days_off": 29, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 69.75, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 10, "horse": "Castor the Star", "marketPct": 3.65, "baseModelShare": 4.6074, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 4.102, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 10.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 9, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 4.25, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 2, "days_off": 63, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 70.5, "past_purse_log": null } } ], "baseTop3": [ 9, 3, 5 ], "opponentTop3": [ 9, 8, 3 ], "marketTop3": [ 2, 1, 9 ], "opponentDataCoverage": 9 }, { "leg": 5, "raceId": "2026-10-31_78_9", "runners": [ { "number": 1, "horse": "Yellowstone Doc", "marketPct": 1.66, "baseModelShare": 11.0794, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 7.1692, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 1.0, "distance": 2600.0, "field": 15, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 1, "win5": 3, "top3_5": 3, "days_off": 26, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 74.95, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 2, "horse": "Peacekeeper", "marketPct": 6.57, "baseModelShare": 2.3278, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 2.1803, "hasOpponentEvidence": false, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 2.0, "distance": 2600.0, "field": 15, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 2.2, "win5": 3, "top3_5": 4, "days_off": 8, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": 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