{ "schemaVersion": 1, "kind": "FROZEN_PROSPECTIVE_RESEARCH_NOT_BETTING_ADVICE", "gameId": "V85_2026-10-31_78_5", "date": "2026-10-31", "slot": "preview", "frozenAt": "2026-10-27T11:08:29.411964+01:00", "marketSourceAt": "2026-10-27T11:01:30+01:00", "marketObservedAt": "2026-10-27T11:08:29.411964+01:00", "marketLagSeconds": 419, "marketSource": "https://www.atg.se/services/racinginfo/v1/api/games/V85_2026-10-31_78_5", "trainingRaces": 178, "trainingStarts": 1931, "dataProvenance": "Both XGBoost models were trained on historic starts strictly before 2026-10-31. All Bjerke inputs were obtained live BEFORE start; both share identical horse list and ATG source time.", "statisticalWarning": "Percentages are within-race normalized UNCALIBRATED classifier scores, NOT estimated probabilities, spik odds, or predicted return.", "researchDisclaimer": "No recommendation to bet based on these forecasts; model scores have underperformed ATG top-three ranking in historical comparison.", "races": [ { "leg": 1, "raceId": "2026-10-31_78_5", "runners": [ { "number": 1, "horse": "Jaguar Godiva", "marketPct": 6.72, "baseModelShare": 6.8103, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 10.7108, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 1.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 12, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 4.6, "win5": 0, "top3_5": 2, "days_off": 21, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 2, "horse": "Hickovelocissimo", "marketPct": 3.77, "baseModelShare": 8.5634, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 7.3611, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 2.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 12, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 2.5, "win5": 2, "top3_5": 2, "days_off": 13, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 3, "horse": "Great Old Dance", "marketPct": 43.0, "baseModelShare": 16.4581, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 14.6105, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 3.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 12, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 2.8, "win5": 2, "top3_5": 4, "days_off": 14, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 4, "horse": "J.C.", "marketPct": 11.97, "baseModelShare": 22.7618, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 25.0622, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 4.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 12, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 1.8, "win5": 2, "top3_5": 5, "days_off": 12, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 71.55, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 5, "horse": "Leverage", "marketPct": 10.53, "baseModelShare": 13.4932, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 13.5018, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 5.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 12, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 4.25, "win5": 2, "top3_5": 2, "days_off": 212, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 6, "horse": "Jackson Trot", "marketPct": 1.34, "baseModelShare": 3.8846, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 4.255, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 6.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 12, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 2.25, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 3, "days_off": 11, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 72.55, "past_purse_log": 15.115 } }, { "number": 7, "horse": "Hercules Godiva", "marketPct": 0.47, "baseModelShare": 5.0757, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 3.6006, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 7.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 12, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 5, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 1, "days_off": 29, "gallop5": 1.0, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 8, "horse": "Legligin", "marketPct": 6.96, "baseModelShare": 4.8785, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 4.7086, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 8.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 12, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 3.8, "win5": 0, "top3_5": 3, "days_off": 14, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 9, "horse": "Tayno B.B.", "marketPct": 0.56, "baseModelShare": 1.5451, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 1.6291, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 9.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 12, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 3, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 3, "days_off": 11, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 72.6, "past_purse_log": 14.907 } }, { "number": 10, "horse": "Fly Express", "marketPct": 8.17, "baseModelShare": 3.0095, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 3.1699, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 10.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 12, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 3.8, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 2, "days_off": 12, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 71.95, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 11, "horse": "Ulaya", "marketPct": 3.72, "baseModelShare": 7.6874, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 5.9249, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 11.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 12, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 3.2, "win5": 2, "top3_5": 2, "days_off": 31, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 12, "horse": "Zigzag Zagazoo", "marketPct": 2.8, "baseModelShare": 5.8324, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 5.4656, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 12.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 12, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 2.8, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 3, "days_off": 24, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": null } } ], "baseTop3": [ 4, 3, 5 ], "opponentTop3": [ 4, 3, 5 ], "marketTop3": [ 3, 4, 5 ], "opponentDataCoverage": 12 }, { "leg": 2, "raceId": "2026-10-31_78_6", "runners": [ { "number": 1, "horse": "Baias", "marketPct": 3.2, "baseModelShare": 6.8098, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 9.561, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 1.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 11, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 3.8, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 2, "days_off": 42, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": 15.808 } }, { "number": 2, "horse": "Gigant Tider", "marketPct": 14.13, "baseModelShare": 9.0181, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 13.2277, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 2.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 11, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 1.8, "win5": 3, "top3_5": 4, "days_off": 16, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 82.2, "past_purse_log": 14.422 } }, { "number": 3, "horse": "Tordenskjold", "marketPct": 7.65, "baseModelShare": 7.2132, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 7.5669, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 3.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 11, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 2.2, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 4, "days_off": 11, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 81.55, "past_purse_log": 15.387 } }, { "number": 4, "horse": "Voje Lotta", "marketPct": 11.64, "baseModelShare": 16.9416, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 16.5118, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 4.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 11, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 2, "win5": 3, "top3_5": 4, "days_off": 25, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": 15.674 } }, { "number": 5, "horse": "Bare Mattis", "marketPct": 3.5, "baseModelShare": 20.397, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 14.7736, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 5.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 11, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 2, "win5": 2, "top3_5": 4, "days_off": 42, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": 15.808 } }, { "number": 6, "horse": "Grisle Tore G.L.", "marketPct": 38.1, "baseModelShare": 4.0076, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 4.6226, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 6.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 11, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 1.5, "win5": 2, "top3_5": 4, "days_off": 11, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": 14.981 } }, { "number": 7, "horse": "Holter Odin", "marketPct": 1.17, "baseModelShare": 1.0486, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 1.2317, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 7.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 11, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 4.25, "win5": 0, "top3_5": 1, "days_off": 11, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 81.8, "past_purse_log": 14.981 } }, { "number": 8, "horse": "Tangen Nils", "marketPct": 10.1, "baseModelShare": 15.9519, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 19.7176, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 8.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 11, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 1.6, "win5": 3, "top3_5": 5, "days_off": 48, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": 17.461 } }, { "number": 9, "horse": "Prinsesse Ness Tjo", "marketPct": 9.14, "baseModelShare": 14.4322, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 8.569, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 9.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 11, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 1.5, "win5": 3, "top3_5": 4, "days_off": 35, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 10, "horse": "Tripsson Ø.K.", "marketPct": 0.61, "baseModelShare": 1.0887, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 1.0859, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 10.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 11, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 3, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 2, "days_off": 11, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 82.95, "past_purse_log": 14.827 } }, { "number": 11, "horse": "Alm Kevin", "marketPct": 0.76, "baseModelShare": 3.0914, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 3.1321, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 11.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 11, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 5.75, "win5": 0, "top3_5": 0, "days_off": 13, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 82.45, "past_purse_log": 15.808 } } ], "baseTop3": [ 5, 4, 8 ], "opponentTop3": [ 8, 4, 5 ], "marketTop3": [ 6, 2, 4 ], "opponentDataCoverage": 11 }, { "leg": 3, "raceId": "2026-10-31_78_7", "runners": [ { "number": 1, "horse": "Lilli Kentucky S.F.", "marketPct": 1.56, "baseModelShare": 3.8099, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 2.6346, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 1.0, "distance": 2100.0, "field": 12, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 2.5, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 3, "days_off": 23, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 76.3, "past_purse_log": 14.316 } }, { "number": 2, "horse": "Pauhunri Boko", "marketPct": 35.45, "baseModelShare": 9.9546, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 6.5451, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 2.0, "distance": 2100.0, "field": 12, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 1.2, "win5": 4, "top3_5": 5, "days_off": 66, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 76.1, "past_purse_log": 14.316 } }, { "number": 3, "horse": "Moor Jeting", "marketPct": 5.24, "baseModelShare": 6.7479, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 9.5249, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 3.0, "distance": 2100.0, "field": 12, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 1.667, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 3, "days_off": 20, "gallop5": 1.0, "km_median": 75.3, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 4, "horse": "Daisy Love", "marketPct": 1.27, "baseModelShare": 2.534, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 2.3381, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 4.0, "distance": 2100.0, "field": 12, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 2.8, "win5": 2, "top3_5": 4, "days_off": 8, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 75.4, "past_purse_log": 14.316 } }, { "number": 5, "horse": "Lapin Kulta Sox", "marketPct": 5.79, "baseModelShare": 4.4091, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 5.6382, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 5.0, "distance": 2100.0, "field": 12, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 2.5, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 3, "days_off": 11, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 75.55, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 6, "horse": "Sauron Zon", "marketPct": 16.19, "baseModelShare": 5.3023, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 6.5305, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 6.0, "distance": 2100.0, "field": 12, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 1.667, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 3, "days_off": 10, "gallop5": 1.0, "km_median": 75.4, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 7, "horse": "S.B.'sPeakyBlinder", "marketPct": 8.11, "baseModelShare": 5.7403, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 4.0531, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 7.0, "distance": 2100.0, "field": 12, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 3.2, "win5": 2, "top3_5": 3, "days_off": 13, "gallop5": 1.0, "km_median": 76.1, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 8, "horse": "Surpriced Tooma", "marketPct": 3.4, "baseModelShare": 15.7429, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 24.7754, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 8.0, "distance": 2100.0, "field": 12, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 1, "win5": 2, "top3_5": 2, "days_off": 22, "gallop5": 1.0, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 9, "horse": "Man of Means", "marketPct": 2.5, "baseModelShare": 2.5372, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 2.9738, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 9.0, "distance": 2100.0, "field": 12, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 3, "win5": 2, "top3_5": 2, "days_off": 10, "gallop5": 1.0, "km_median": 74.5, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 10, "horse": "Chasse Artist", "marketPct": 1.55, "baseModelShare": 5.0427, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 4.623, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 10.0, "distance": 2100.0, "field": 12, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 4.25, "win5": 0, "top3_5": 1, "days_off": 14, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 74.9, "past_purse_log": 16.562 } }, { "number": 11, "horse": "Urban Tile", "marketPct": 17.68, "baseModelShare": 20.5986, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 20.9351, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 11.0, "distance": 2100.0, "field": 12, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 1.25, "win5": 3, "top3_5": 4, "days_off": 25, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 74.8, "past_purse_log": 14.422 } }, { "number": 12, "horse": "Gobsmacked", "marketPct": 1.26, "baseModelShare": 17.5804, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 9.4283, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 12.0, "distance": 2100.0, "field": 12, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 1, "win5": 2, "top3_5": 2, "days_off": 33, "gallop5": 1.0, "km_median": 75.2, "past_purse_log": null } } ], "baseTop3": [ 11, 12, 8 ], "opponentTop3": [ 8, 11, 3 ], "marketTop3": [ 2, 11, 6 ], "opponentDataCoverage": 12 }, { "leg": 4, "raceId": "2026-10-31_78_8", "runners": [ { "number": 1, "horse": "Baron Tilly", "marketPct": 16.49, "baseModelShare": 8.8011, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 10.0657, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 1.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 1.5, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 2, "days_off": 77, "gallop5": 1.0, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 2, "horse": "Daim Brodda", "marketPct": 35.15, "baseModelShare": 4.7771, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 5.8449, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 2.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 4, "win5": 0, "top3_5": 2, "days_off": 20, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 3, "horse": "Before Takeoff", "marketPct": 3.22, "baseModelShare": 9.1574, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 8.6085, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 3.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 3, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 3, "days_off": 21, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 70.0, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 4, "horse": "Xanthis Harvey", "marketPct": 1.61, "baseModelShare": 4.9841, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 5.6704, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 4.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 5, "win5": 0, "top3_5": 1, "days_off": 56, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 70.55, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 5, "horse": "Charron", "marketPct": 7.66, "baseModelShare": 12.9386, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 11.5519, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 5.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 5, "win5": 2, "top3_5": 2, "days_off": 21, "gallop5": 1.0, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": 16.947 } }, { "number": 6, "horse": "Powwow", "marketPct": 3.65, "baseModelShare": 5.4494, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 4.6949, "hasOpponentEvidence": false, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 6.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 4.333, "win5": 0, "top3_5": 1, "days_off": 20, "gallop5": null, "km_median": null, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 7, "horse": "Crown", "marketPct": 2.07, "baseModelShare": 7.5076, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 7.1943, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, "prestartFeatures": { "post": 7.0, "distance": 1609.0, "field": 10, "auto": 1, "starts5": 5, "form_place_mean": 2.5, "win5": 1, "top3_5": 3, "days_off": 26, "gallop5": null, "km_median": 70.8, "past_purse_log": null } }, { "number": 8, "horse": "Clarissa", "marketPct": 9.87, "baseModelShare": 7.1987, "previousOpponentsModelShare": 11.1487, "hasOpponentEvidence": true, 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