{
  "reportType": "EXPLORATORY_BACKTEST_NOT_VALIDATED",
  "createdAt": "2026-10-27T07:45:11.276122+00:00",
  "trainDates": [
    "2025-11-22",
    "2026-05-09"
  ],
  "heldOutDates": [
    "2026-05-23",
    "2026-10-24"
  ],
  "trainStarts": 1308,
  "testStarts": 623,
  "trainRaces": 121,
  "testRaces": 57,
  "model": "XGBClassifier, 135 trees, depth 3, time-ordered date holdout",
  "features": [
    "post",
    "distance",
    "field",
    "auto",
    "starts5",
    "form_place_mean",
    "win5",
    "top3_5",
    "days_off",
    "gallop5",
    "km_median",
    "past_purse_log"
  ],
  "modelMetrics": {
    "races": 57,
    "top1Count": 12,
    "top3Count": 31,
    "top1Rate": 0.2105,
    "top3Rate": 0.5439,
    "raceLogLoss": 2.1661,
    "horseBrier": 0.0816
  },
  "modelOnIdenticalMarketRaces": {
    "races": 32,
    "top1Count": 8,
    "top3Count": 16,
    "top1Rate": 0.25,
    "top3Rate": 0.5,
    "raceLogLoss": 2.1278,
    "horseBrier": 0.08088
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  "marketFinalPoolBaseline": {
    "races": 32,
    "top1Count": 15,
    "top3Count": 26,
    "top1Rate": 0.4688,
    "top3Rate": 0.8125,
    "raceLogLoss": 1.6324,
    "horseBrier": 0.07315
  },
  "baselineCaveat": "Market uses retrospective final V85 pool percentages, NOT independently archived prestart snapshots. Cross-pool timing may not be independently verified.",
  "validationCaveat": "Small pilot, one chronological holdout, no hyperparameter search or robust confidence intervals. Do not interpret as profit, actionable spik/skrall recommendations or proven independent probabilities.",
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    {
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    {
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